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**Using Maths to model the spread of The Chinese Coronavirus (Wuhan flu)**

The Wuhan coronavirus is the latest virus to warrant global fears over a disease pandemic. Throughout history we have seen pandemic diseases such as the Black Death in Middle Ages Europe and the Spanish Flu at the beginning of the 20th century. More recently we have seen HIV responsible for millions of deaths. In the last few years there have been scares over bird flu and SARS – yet neither fully developed into a major global health problem. So, how contagious is Wuhan flu, and how can we use mathematics to predict its spread?

Modelling disease outbreaks with real accuracy is an incredibly important job for mathematicians and all countries employ medical statisticians for this job . Understanding how diseases spread and how fast they can spread through populations is essential to developing effective medical strategies to minimise deaths. If you want to save lives maybe you should become a mathematician rather than a doctor!

Currently scientists know relatively little about the new virus – but they do know that it’s the same coronavirus family as SARS and MERS which can both cause serious respiratory problems. Scientists are particularly interested in trying to discover how infectious the virus is, how long a person remains contagious, and whether people can be contagious before they show any symptoms.

**In the case of Wuhan flu we have the following early estimated values: **[From a paper published by medical statisticians in the UK on January 24]

**R _{0}. between 3.6 and 4.** This is defined as how many people an infectious person will pass on their infection to in a totally susceptible population. The higher the R

_{0}. value the more quickly an infection will spread. By comparison seasonal flu has a R

_{0}. value around 2.8.

**Total number infected** by January 21: prediction interval 9,217–14,245. Of these an estimated 3,050–4,017 currently with the virus and the others recovered (or died). This is based on an estimation that only around 5% of cases have been diagnosed. By February 4th they predict 132,751–273,649 will be infected.

**Transmission rate β** estimated at 1.07. β represents the transmission rate per day – so on average an infected person will infect another 1.07 people a day.

**Infectious period** estimated at 3.6 days. We can therefore calculate μ (the per capita recovery rate) by μ = 1/(3.6). This tells us how quickly people will be removed from the population (either recovered and become immune or died)

**SIR Model**

The basic model is based on the SIR model. The SIR model looks at how much of the population is susceptible to infection (S), how many of these go on to become infectious (I), and how many of these are removed (R) from the population being considered (i.e they either recover and thus won’t catch the virus again, or die).

The Guardian datablog have an excellent graphic to show the contagiousness relative to deadliness of different diseases [click to enlarge, or follow the link]. We can see that seasonal flu has an R_{0}. value of around 2.8 and a fatality rate of around 0.1%, whereas measles has an R_{0}. value of around 15 and a fatality rate of around 0.3%. This means that measles is much more contagious than seasonal flu.

You can notice that we have nothing in the top right hand corner (very deadly and very contagious). This is just as well as that could be enough to seriously dent the human population. Most diseases we worry about fall into 2 categories – contagious and not very deadly or not very contagious and deadly.

The equations above represent a SIR (susceptible, infectious, removed) model which can be used to model the spread of diseases like flu.

dS/dt represents the rate of change of those who are susceptible to the illness with respect to time. dI/dt represents the rate of change of those who are infected with respect to time. dR/dt represents the rate of change of those who have been removed with respect to time (either recovered or died).

For example, if dI/dt is high then the number of people becoming infected is rapidly increasing. When dI/dt is zero then there is no change in the numbers of people becoming infected (number of infections remain steady). When dI/dt is negative then the numbers of people becoming infected is decreasing.

**Modelling for Wuhan**

N is the total population. Let’s take as the population of Wuhan as 11 million.

μ is the per capita recovery (Calculated by μ = 1/(duration of illness) ). We have μ = 1/3.6 = 5/18.

β the transmission rate as approximately 1.07

Therefore our 3 equations for rates of change become:

dS/dt = -1.07 S I /11,000,000

dI/dt = 1.07 S I /11,000,000 – 5/18 I

dR/dt = 5/18 I

Unfortunately these equations are very difficult to solve – but luckily we can use a computer program or spreadsheet to plot what happens. We need to assign starting values for S, I and R – the numbers of people susceptible, infectious and removed. With the following values for January 21: S = 11,000,000, I = 3500, R = 8200, β = 1.07, μ = 5/18, I designed the following Excel spreadsheet (instructions on what formula to use here):

This gives a prediction that around 3.9 million people infected within 2 weeks! We can see that the SIR model that we have used is quite simplistic (and significantly different to the expert prediction of around 200,000 infected).

So, we can try and make things more realistic by adding some real life considerations. The current value of β (the transmission rate) is 1.07, i.e an infected person will infect another 1.07 people each day. We can significantly reduce this if we expect that infected people are quarantined effectively so that they do not interact with other members of the public, and indeed if people who are not sick avoid going outside. So, if we take β as (say) 0.6 instead we get the following table:

Here we can see that this change to β has had a dramatic effect to our model. Now we are predicting around 129,000 infected after 14 days – which is much more in line with the estimate in the paper above.

As we are seeing exponential growth in the spread, small changes to the parameters will have very large effects. There are more sophisticated SIR models which can then be used to better understand the spread of a disease. Nevertheless we can see clearly from the spreadsheet the interplay between susceptible, infected and recovered which is the foundation for understanding the spread of viruses like Wuhan flu.

**Finding the volume of a rugby ball (prolate spheroid)**

With the rugby union World Cup currently underway I thought I’d try and work out the volume of a rugby ball using some calculus. This method works similarly for American football and Australian rules football. The approach is to consider the rugby ball as an ellipse rotated 360 degrees around the x axis to create a volume of revolution. We can find the equation of an ellipse centered at (0,0) by simply looking at the x and y intercepts. An ellipse with y-intercept (0,b) and x intercept (a,0) will have equation:

Therefore for our rugby ball with a horizontal “radius” (vertex) of 14.2cm and a vertical “radius” (co-vertex) of 8.67cm will have equation:

We can see that when we plot this ellipse we get an equation which very closely resembles our rugby ball shape:

Therefore we can now find the volume of revolution by using the following formula:

But we can simplify matters by starting the rotation at x = 0 to find half the volume, before doubling our answer. Therefore:

Rearranging our equation of the ellipse formula we get:

Therefore we have the following integration:

Therefore our rugby ball has a volume of around 4.5 litres. We can compare this with the volume of a football (soccer ball) – which has a radius of around 10.5cm, therefore a volume of around 4800 cubic centimeters.

We can find the general volume of any rugby ball (mathematically defined as a prolate spheroid) by the following generalization:

We can see that this is very closely related to the formula for the volume of a sphere, which makes sense as the prolate spheroid behaves like a sphere deformed across its axes. Our prolate spheroid has “radii” b, b and a – therefore r cubed in the sphere formula becomes b squared a.

**Prolate spheroids in nature**

The image above [wiki image NASA] is of the Crab Nebula – a distant Supernova remnant around 6500 light years away. The shape of Crab Nebula is described as a prolate spheroid.

**Soap Bubbles and Catenoids**

Soap bubbles form such that they create a shape with the minimum surface area for the given constraints. For a fixed volume the minimum surface area is a sphere, which is why soap bubbles will form spheres where possible. We can also investigate what happens when a soap film is formed between 2 parallel circular lines like in the picture below: [Credit Wikimedia Commons, Blinking spirit]

In this case the shape formed is a catenoid – which provides the minimum surface area (for a fixed volume) for a 3D shape connecting the two circles. The catenoid can be defined in terms of parametric equations:

Where cosh() is the hyperbolic cosine function which can be defined as:

For our parametric equation, t and u are parameters which we vary, and c is a constant that we can change to create different catenoids. We can use Geogebra to plot different catenoids. Below is the code which will plot parametric curves when c =2 and t varies between -20pi and 20 pi.

We then need to create a slider for u, and turn on the trace button – and for every given value of u (between 0 and 2 pi) it will plot a curve. When we trace through all the values of u it will create a 3D shape – our catenoid.

**Individual curve (catenary)**

**Catenoid when c = 0.1**

**Catenoid when c = 0.5**

**Catenoid when c = 1**

**Catenoid when c = 2**

**Wormholes**

For those of you who know your science fiction, the catenoids above may look similar to a wormhole. That’s because the catenoid is a solution to the hypothesized mathematics of wormholes. These can be thought of as a “bridge” either through curved space-time to another part of the universe (potentially therefore allowing for faster than light travel) or a bridge connecting 2 distinct universes.

Above is the Morris-Thorne bridge wormhole [Credit The Image of a Wormhole].

**Further exploration:**

This is a topic with lots of interesting areas to explore – the individual curves (catenary) look similar to, but are distinct from parabola. These curves appear in bridge building and in many other objects with free hanging cables. Proving that catenoids form shapes with minimum surface areas requires some quite complicated undergraduate maths (variational calculus), but it would be interesting to explore some other features of catenoids or indeed to explore why the sphere is a minimum surface area for a given volume.

If you want to explore further you can generate your own Catenoids with the Geogebra animation I’ve made here.

**The Van Eck Sequence**

This is a nice sequence as discussed in the Numberphile video above. There are only 2 rules:

- If you have not seen the number in the sequence before, add a 0 to the sequence.
- If you have seen the number in the sequence before, count how long since you last saw it.

You start with a 0.

0

You have never seen a 0 before, so the next number is 0.

00

You have seen a 0 before, and it was 1 step ago, so the next number is 1.

001

You have never seen a 1 before, so the next number is 0.

0010

You have seen a 0 before, it was 2 steps ago, so the next number is 2.

00102.

etc.

I can run a quick Python program (adapted from the entry in the Online Encyclopedia of Integer Sequences here) to find the first 100 terms.

```
```A181391 = [0, 0]

for n in range(1, 10**2):

for m in range(n-1, -1, -1):

if A181391[m] == A181391[n]:

A181391.append(n-m)

break

else:

A181391.append(0)

print(A181391)

This returns:

[0, 0, 1, 0, 2, 0, 2, 2, 1, 6, 0, 5, 0, 2, 6, 5, 4, 0, 5, 3, 0, 3, 2, 9, 0, 4, 9, 3, 6, 14, 0, 6, 3, 5, 15, 0, 5, 3, 5, 2, 17, 0, 6, 11, 0, 3, 8, 0, 3, 3, 1, 42, 0, 5, 15, 20, 0, 4, 32, 0, 3, 11, 18, 0, 4, 7, 0, 3, 7, 3, 2, 31, 0, 6, 31, 3, 6, 3, 2, 8, 33, 0, 9, 56, 0, 3, 8, 7, 19, 0, 5, 37, 0, 3, 8, 8, 1, 46, 0, 6, 23]

I then assigned each term an x coordinate value, i.e.:

0 , 0

1 , 0

2 , 1

3 , 0

4 , 2

5 , 0

6 , 2

7 , 2

8 , 1

9 , 6

10 , 0

11 , 5

12 , 0

13 , 2

14 , 6

15 , 5

16 , 4

17 , 0

18 , 5

19 , 3

20 , 0

etc.

This means that you can then plot the sequence as a line graph, with the y values corresponding to the sequence terms. As you can see, every time we hit a new peak the following value is 0, leading to the peaks and troughs seen below:

Let’s extend the sequence to the first 1000 terms:

We can see that the line y = x provides a reasonably good upper bound for this data:

But it is not known if every number would actually appear in the sequence somewhere – so this bound may not hold for larger values.

**Length of steps before new numbers appear.**

We can also investigate how long we have to wait to see each number for the first time by running the following Python code:

```
```A181391 = [0, 0]

for n in range(1, 10**3):

for m in range(n-1, -1, -1):

if A181391[m] == A181391[n]:

A181391.append(n-m)

break

else:

A181391.append(0)

for m in range(1,50):

if A181391[n]==m:

print(m, ",", n+1)

break

This returns the following data:

1 , 3

2 , 5

6 , 10

5 , 12

4 , 17

3 , 20

9 , 24

14 , 30

15 , 35

17 , 41

11 , 44

8 , 47

42 , 52

20 , 56

32 , 59

18 , 63

7 , 66

31 , 72

33 , 81

19 , 89

etc.

The first coordinate tells us the number we are interested in, and the second number tells us how long we have to wait in the sequence until it appears. So (1 , 3) means that we have to wait until 3 terms in the sequence to see the number 1 for the first time.

Plotting this for numbers 1-50 on a graph returns the following:

So, we can see (for example that we wait 66 terms to first see a 7, and 173 terms to first see a 12. There seems to be a general trend that as the numbers get larger we have to wait longer to see them. Testing this with a linear regression we can see a weak to moderate correlation:

Checking for the numbers up to 300 we get the following:

For example this shows that we have to wait 9700 terms until we see the number 254 for the first time. Testing this with a linear correlation we have a weaker positive correlation than previously.

So, a nice and quick investigation using a combination of sequences, coding, graphing and regression, with lots of areas this could be developed further.

Computers can brute force a lot of simple mathematical problems, so I thought I’d try and write some code to solve some of them. In nearly all these cases there’s probably a more elegant way of coding the problem – but these all do the job! You can run all of these with a Python editor such as Repl.it. Just copy and paste the below code and see what happens.

1) **Happy Numbers.**

Happy numbers are defined by the rule that you start with any positive integer, square each of the digits then add them together. Now do the same with the new number. Happy numbers will eventually spiral down to a number of 1. Numbers that don’t eventually reach 1 are called unhappy numbers.

As an example, say we start with the number 23. Next we do 2²+3² = 13. Now, 1²+3² = 10. Now 1²+0² = 1. 23 is therefore a happy number.

k= int(input("type a 2 digit number "))

a = int(k%10)

c = int(k//100)

b = int(k//10 -10*c)

print (a**2+b**2+c**2)

```
```for k in range (1,20):

` k = a**2+b**2 + c**2`

a = int(k%10)

c = int(k//100)

b = int(k//10 -10*c)

print (a**2+b**2+c**2)

2) **Sum of 3 cubes**

Most (though not all) numbers can be written as the sum of 3 cubes. For example:

1^{3} + 2^{3} + 2^{3} = 17. Therefore 17 can be written as the sum of 3 cubes.

This program allows you to see all the combinations possible when using the integers -10 to 10 and trying to make all the numbers up to 29.

for k in range(1,30):

```
```

` for a in range(-10, 10):`

for b in range(-10,10):

for c in range (-10, 10):

if a**3+b**3+c**3 == k :

print(k,a,b,c)

3) **Narcissistic Numbers**

A 3 digit narcissistic number is defined as one which the sum of the cubes of its digits equal the original number. This program allows you to see all 3 digit narcissistic numbers.

```
```for a in range (0,10):

for b in range(0, 10):

for c in range(0,10):

if a**3 + b**3 + c**3 ==100*a + 10*b + c:

print(int(100*a + 10*b + c))

4) **Pythagorean triples**

Pythagorean triples are integer solutions to Pythagoras’ Theorem. For example:

3^{2} + 4^{2} = 5^{2} is an integer solution to Pythagoras’ Theorem.

This code allows you to find all integer solutions to Pythagoras’ Theorem for the numbers in the range you specify.

```
```k = 100

`for a in range(1, k):`

for b in range(1,k):

for c in range (1, 2*k):

if a**2+b**2==c**2:

print(a,b,c)

5) **Perfect Numbers**

Perfect numbers are numbers whose proper factors (factors excluding the number itself) add to the number. This is easier to see with an example.

6 is a perfect number because its proper factors are 1,2,3 and 1+2+3 = 6

8 is not a perfect number because its proper factors are 1,2,4 and 1+2+4 = 7

Perfect numbers have been known about for about 2000 years – however they are exceptionally rare. The first 4 perfect numbers are 6, 28, 496, 8128. These were all known to the Greeks. The next perfect number wasn’t discovered until around 1500 years later – and not surprisingly as it’s 33,550,336.

The code below will find all the perfect numbers less than 10,000.

```
```for n in range(1,10000):

list = []

for i in range (1,n):

if n%i ==0:

list.append(i)

if sum(list)==n:

print(n)

**Friendly Numbers**

Friendly numbers are numbers which share a relationship with other numbers. They require the use of σ(a) which is called the divisor function and means the addition of all the factors of a. For example σ(7) = 1 + 7 = 8 and σ(10) = 1 +2 +5 + 10 = 18.

Friendly numbers therefore satisfy:

σ(a)/a = σ(b)/b

As an example:

σ(6) / 6 = (1+2+3+6) / 6 = 2,

σ(28) / 28 = (1+2+4+7+14+28) / 28 = 2

σ(496)/496 = (1+2+4+8+16+31+62+124+248+496)/496 = 2

Therefore 28 and 6 are friendly numbers because they share a common relationship.

This code will help find some Friendly numbers (though these are very difficult to find, as we need to check against every other integer until we find a relationship).

The code below will find some Friendly numbers less than 200, and their friendly pair less than 5000:

for n in range(1,5000):

list = []

```
``` for i in range (1,n+1):

if n%i ==0:

list.append(i)

Result1 = sum(list)

for m in range(1,200):

list2 = []

for j in range (1,m+1):

if m%j ==0:

list2.append(j)

Result2 = sum(list2)

` if Result2/m ==Result1/n:`

if n != m:

print(n,m)

**Hailstone numbers**

Hailstone numbers are created by the following rules:

if n is even: divide by 2

if n is odd: times by 3 and add 1

We can then generate a sequence from any starting number. For example, starting with 10:

10, 5, 16, 8, 4, 2, 1, 4, 2, 1…

we can see that this sequence loops into an infinitely repeating 4,2,1 sequence. Trying another number, say 58:

58, 29, 88, 44, 22, 11, 34, 17, 52, 26, 13, 40, 20, 10, 5, 16, 8, 4, 2, 1, 4, 2, 1…

and we see the same loop of 4,2,1.

The question is, does every number end in this loop? Well, we don’t know. Every number mathematicians have checked do indeed lead to this loop, but that is not a proof. Perhaps there is a counter-example, we just haven’t found it yet.

Run the code below, and by changing the value of n you can see how quickly the number enters the 4,2,1 loop.

n = 300

for k in range(1,40):

```
```

` if n%2 ==0:`

print(n/2)

n =n/2

elif n%2 !=0:

print(3*n+1)

n =3*n+1

**Generating the Golden ratio**

The Golden ratio can be approximated by dividing any 2 successive terms of the Fibonacci sequence. As we divide ever larger successive terms we get a better approximation for the Golden ratio. This code returns successive terms of the Fibonacci sequence and the corresponding approximation for the Golden ratio.

a = 0

b = 1

print(a)

print(b)

for k in range(1,30):

```
``` a = a+b

b = a+b

` print(a,b, b/a)`

**Partial sums**

We can use programs to see if sums to infinity converge. For example with the sequence 1/n, if I add the terms together I get: 1/1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + 1/4…In this case the series (surprisingly) diverges. The code below shows that the sum of the sequence 1/n^{2} converges to a number (pi^{2}/6).

```
```

`list = []`

for n in range(1,100):

n = 1/(n**2)

list.append(n)

print(sum(list))

**Returning to 6174**

This is a nice number trick. You take any 4 digit number, then rearrange the digits so that you make the largest number possible and also the smallest number possible. You then take away the smallest number from the largest number, and then start again. For example with the number 6785, the largest number we can make is 8765 and the smallest is 5678. So we do 8765 – 5678 = 3087. We then carry on with the same method. Eventually we will arrive at the number 6174!

k= int(input("type a 4 digit number "))

a = int(k%10)

d = int(k//1000)

c = int(k//100 - 10*d)

b = int(k//10 -10*c-100*d)

```
```for n in range(1,10):

list = []

list = [a,b,c,d]

list.sort()

a = list[0]

d = list[3]

c = list[2]

b = list[1]

print(1000*d+100*c+10*b+a -1000*a-100*b-10*c-d)

k = int(1000*d+100*c+10*b+a -1000*a-100*b-10*c-d)

a = int(k%10)

d = int(k//1000)

c = int(k//100 - 10*d)

b = int(k//10 -10*c-100*d)

list = []

list = [a,b,c,d]

list.sort()

a = list[0]

d = list[3]

c = list[2]

b = list[1]

` print(1000*d+100*c+10*b+a -1000*a-100*b-10*c-d)`

**Maximising the volume of a cuboid**

If we take a cuboid of length n, and cut squares of size x from the corner, what value of x will give the maximum volume? This code will look at initial squares of size 10×10 up to 90×90 and find the value of x for each which give the maximum volume.

def compute():

```
``` list1=[]

k=6

z = int(0.5*a*10**k)

for x in range(1,z):

list1.append((10*a-2*x/10**(k-1))*(10*a-2*x/10**(k-1))*(x/10**(k-1)))

print("length of original side is, ", 10*a)

y= max(list1)

print("maximum volume is, ", max(list1))

q = list1.index(y)

print("length of square removed from corner is, ", (q+1)/10**(k-1))

`for a in range(1,10):`

print(compute())

**Stacking cannonballs – solving maths with code**

Numberphile have recently done a video looking at the maths behind stacking cannonballs – so in this post I’ll look at the code needed to solve this problem.

**Triangular based pyramid.**

A triangular based pyramid would have:

1 ball on the top layer

1 + 3 balls on the second layer

1 + 3 + 6 balls on the third layer

1 + 3 + 6 + 10 balls on the fourth layer.

Therefore a triangular based pyramid is based on the sum of the first n triangular numbers.

The formula for the triangular numbers is:

and the formula for the sum of the first n triangular numbers is:

We can simplify this by using the identity for the sum of the first n square numbers and also the identity for the sum of the first n natural numbers:

Therefore:

and the question we want to find out is whether there is triangular based pyramid with a certain number of cannonballs which can be rearranged into a triangular number i.e.:

here n and m can be any natural number. For example if we choose n = 3 and m = 4 we see that we have the following:

Therefore we can have a triangular pyramid of height 3, which has 10 cannonballs. There 10 cannonballs can then be rearranged into a triangular number.

**Square based pyramids and above.**

For a square based pyramid we would have:

1 ball on the top layer

1 + 4 balls on the second layer

1 + 4 + 9 balls on the third layer

1 + 4 + 9 + 16 balls on the fourth layer.

This is the sum of the first n square numbers. So the formula for the square numbers is:

and the sum of the first n square numbers is:

**For a pentagonal based pyramid we have:**

1 ball on the top layer

1 + 5 balls on the second layer

1 + 5 + 12 balls on the third layer

1 + 5 + 12 + 22 balls on the fourth layer.

This is the sum of the first n pentagonal numbers. So the formula for the pentagonal numbers is:

and the formula for the first n pentagonal numbers is:

**For a hexagonal based pyramid we have:**

The formula for the first n hexagonal numbers:

and the formula for the sum of the first n hexagonal numbers:

For a **k-agon based pyramid we have**

and the formula for the sum of the first n k-agon numbers:

Therefore the general case is to ask if a k-agonal pyramid can be rearranged into a k-agon number i.e:

**Computers to the rescue**

We can then use some coding to brute force some solutions by running through large numbers of integers and seeing if any values give a solution. Here is the Python code. Type it (taking care with the spacing) into a Python editor and you can run it yourself.

You can then change the k range to check larger k-agons and also change the range for a and b. Running this we can find the following. (The first number is the value of k, the second the height of a k-agonal pyramid, the third number the k-agon number and the last number the number of cannonballs used).

**Solutions:**

3 , 3 , 4 , 10

3 , 8 , 15 , 120

3 , 20 , 55 , 1540

3 , 34 , 119 , 7140

4 , 24 , 70 , 4900

6 , 11 , 22 , 946

8 , 10 , 19 , 1045

8 , 18 , 45 , 5985

10 , 5 , 7 , 175

11 , 25 , 73 , 23725

14 , 6 , 9 , 441

14 , 46 , 181 , 195661

17 , 73 , 361 , 975061

20 , 106 , 631 , 3578401

23 , 145 , 1009 , 10680265

26 , 190 , 1513 , 27453385

29 , 241 , 2161 , 63016921

30 , 17 , 41 , 23001

32 , 298 , 2971 , 132361021

35 , 361 , 3961 , 258815701

38 , 430 , 5149 , 477132085

41 , 204 , 1683 , 55202400

41 , 505 , 6553 , 837244045

43 , 33 , 110 , 245905

44 , 586 , 8191 , 1408778281

50 , 34 , 115 , 314755

88 , 15 , 34 , 48280

145, 162, 1191, 101337426

276, 26, 77, 801801)

322, 28, 86, 1169686

823, 113, 694, 197427385

2378, 103, 604, 432684460

31265, 259, 2407, 90525801730

For example we can see a graphical representation of this. When k is 6, we have a hexagonal pyramid with height 11 or the 22nd hexagonal number – both of which give a solution of 946. These are all the solutions I can find – can you find any others? Leave a comment below if you do find any others and I’ll add them to the list!

**Volume optimization of a cuboid**

This is an extension of the Nrich task which is currently live – where students have to find the maximum volume of a cuboid formed by cutting squares of size x from each corner of a 20 x 20 piece of paper. I’m going to use an n x 10 rectangle and see what the optimum x value is when n tends to infinity.

First we can find the volume of the cuboid:

Next we want to find when the volume is a maximum, so differentiate and set this equal to 0.

Next we use the quadratic formula to find the roots of the quadratic, and then see what happens as n tends to infinity (i.e we want to see what the optimum x values are for our cuboid when n approaches infinity). We only take the negative solution of the + – quadratic solutions because this will be the only one that fits the initial problem.

Next we try and simplify the square root by taking out a factor of 16, and then we complete the square for the term inside the square root (this will be useful next!)

Next we make a u substitution. Note that this means that as n approaches infinity, u approaches 0.

Substituting this into the expression gives us:

We then manipulate the surd further to get it in the following form:

Now, the reason for all that manipulation becomes apparent – we can use the binomial expansion for the square root of 1 + u^{2} to get the following:

Therefore we have shown that as the value of n approaches infinity, the value of x that gives the optimum volume approaches 2.5cm.

So, even though we start with a pretty simple optimization task, it quickly develops into some quite complicated mathematics. We could obviously have plotted the term in n to see what its behavior was as n approaches infinity, but it’s nicer to prove it. So, let’s check our result graphically.

As we can see from the graph, with n plotted on the x axis and x plotted on the y axis we approach x = 2.5 as n approaches infinity – as required.

**An m by n rectangle.**

So, we can then extend this by considering an n by m rectangle, where m is fixed and then n tends to infinity. As before the question is what is the value of x which gives the maximum volume as n tends to infinity?

We do the same method. First we write the equation for the volume and put it into the quadratic formula.

Next we complete the square, and make the u substitution:

Next we simplify the surd, and then use the expansion for the square root of 1 + u^{2}

This then gives the following answer:

So, we can see that for an n by m rectangle, as m is fixed and n tends to infinity, the value of x which gives the optimum volume tends to m/4. For example when we had a 10 by n rectangle (i.e m = 10) we had x = 2.5. When we have a 20 by n rectangle we would have x = 5 etc.

And we’ve finished! See what other things you can explore with this problem.

**IB Revision**

If you’re already thinking about your coursework then it’s probably also time to start planning some revision, either for the end of Year 12 school exams or Year 13 final exams. There’s a really great website that I would strongly recommend students use – you choose your subject (HL/SL/Studies if your exam is in 2020 or Applications/Analysis if your exam is in 2021), and then have the following resources:

The Questionbank takes you to a breakdown of each main subject area (e.g. Algebra, Calculus etc) and each area then has a number of graded questions. What I like about this is that you are given a difficulty rating, as well as a mark scheme and also a worked video tutorial. Really useful!

The Practice Exams section takes you to ready made exams on each topic – again with worked solutions. This also has some harder exams for those students aiming for 6s and 7s and the Past IB Exams section takes you to full video worked solutions to every question on every past paper – and you can also get a prediction exam for the upcoming year.

I would really recommend everyone making use of this – there is a mixture of a lot of free content as well as premium content so have a look and see what you think.

**Modeling hours of daylight**

Desmos has a nice student activity (on teacher.desmos.com) modeling the number of hours of daylight in Florida versus Alaska – which both produce a nice sine curve when plotted on a graph. So let’s see if this relationship also holds between Phuket and Manchester.

First we can find the daylight hours from this site, making sure to convert the times given to decimals of hours.

**Phuket**

Phuket has the following distribution of hours of daylight (taking the reading from the first of each month and setting 1 as January)

**Manchester **

Manchester has much greater variation and is as follows:

Therefore when we plot them together (Phuket in green and Manchester in blue) we get the following 2 curves:

We can see that these very closely fit sine curves, indeed we can see that the following regression lines fit the curves very closely:

**Manchester:**

**Phuket:**

For Manchester I needed to set the value of b (see what happens if you don’t do this!) Because we are working with Sine graphs, the value of d will give the equation of the axis of symmetry of the graph, which will also be the average hours of daylight over the year. We can see therefore that even though there is a huge variation between the hours of daylight in the 2 places, they both get on average the same amount of daylight across the year (12.3 hours versus 12.1 hours).

**Further investigation:**

Does the relationship still hold when looking at hours of sunshine rather than daylight? How many years would we expect our model be accurate for? It’s possible to investigate the use of sine waves to model a large amount of natural phenomena such as tide heights and musical notes – so it’s also possible to investigate in this direction as well.

**IB Revision**

If you’re already thinking about your coursework then it’s probably also time to start planning some revision, either for the end of Year 12 school exams or Year 13 final exams. There’s a really great website that I would strongly recommend students use – you choose your subject (HL/SL/Studies if your exam is in 2020 or Applications/Analysis if your exam is in 2021), and then have the following resources:

The Questionbank takes you to a breakdown of each main subject area (e.g. Algebra, Calculus etc) and each area then has a number of graded questions. What I like about this is that you are given a difficulty rating, as well as a mark scheme and also a worked video tutorial. Really useful!

The Practice Exams section takes you to ready made exams on each topic – again with worked solutions. This also has some harder exams for those students aiming for 6s and 7s and the Past IB Exams section takes you to full video worked solutions to every question on every past paper – and you can also get a prediction exam for the upcoming year.

I would really recommend everyone making use of this – there is a mixture of a lot of free content as well as premium content so have a look and see what you think.

This is a nice example of using some maths to solve a puzzle from the mindyourdecisions youtube channel (screencaptures from the video).

**How to Avoid The Troll: A Puzzle**

In these situations it’s best to look at the extreme case first so you get some idea of the problem. If you are feeling particularly pessimistic you could assume that the troll is always going to be there. Therefore you would head to the top of the barrier each time. This situation is represented below:

**The Pessimistic Solution:**

Another basic strategy would be the optimistic strategy. Basically head in a straight line hoping that the troll is not there. If it’s not, then the journey is only 2km. If it is then you have to make a lengthy detour. This situation is shown below:

**The Optimistic Solution:**

The expected value was worked out here by doing 0.5 x (2) + 0.5 x (2 + root 2) = 2.71.

The question is now, is there a better strategy than either of these? An obvious possibility is heading for the point halfway along where the barrier might be. This would make a triangle of base 1 and height 1/2. This has a hypotenuse of root (5/4). In the best case scenario we would then have a total distance of 2 x root (5/4). In the worst case scenario we would have a total distance of root(5/4) + 1/2 + root 2. We find the expected value by multiply both by 0.5 and adding. This gives 2.63 (2 dp). But can we do any better? Yes – by using some algebra and then optimising to find a minimum.

**The Optimisation Solution:**

To minimise this function, we need to differentiate and find when the gradient is equal to zero, or draw a graph and look for the minimum. Now, hopefully you can remember how to differentiate polynomials, so here I’ve used Wolfram Alpha to solve it for us. Wolfram Alpha is incredibly powerful -and also very easy to use. Here is what I entered:

and here is the output:

So, when we head for a point exactly 1/(2 root 2) up the potential barrier, we minimise the distance travelled to around 2.62 miles.

So, there we go, we have saved 0.21 miles from our most pessimistic model, and 0.01 miles from our best guess model of heading for the midpoint. Not a huge difference – but nevertheless we’ll save ourselves a few seconds!

This is a good example of how an exploration could progress – once you get to the end you could then look at changing the question slightly, perhaps the troll is only 1/3 of the distance across? Maybe the troll appears only 1/3 of the time? Could you even generalise the results for when the troll is y distance away or appears z percent of the time?

**IB Revision**

If you’re already thinking about your coursework then it’s probably also time to start planning some revision, either for the end of Year 12 school exams or Year 13 final exams. There’s a really great website that I would strongly recommend students use – you choose your subject (HL/SL/Studies if your exam is in 2020 or Applications/Analysis if your exam is in 2021), and then have the following resources:

The Questionbank takes you to a breakdown of each main subject area (e.g. Algebra, Calculus etc) and each area then has a number of graded questions. What I like about this is that you are given a difficulty rating, as well as a mark scheme and also a worked video tutorial. Really useful!

The Practice Exams section takes you to ready made exams on each topic – again with worked solutions. This also has some harder exams for those students aiming for 6s and 7s and the Past IB Exams section takes you to full video worked solutions to every question on every past paper – and you can also get a prediction exam for the upcoming year.

I would really recommend everyone making use of this – there is a mixture of a lot of free content as well as premium content so have a look and see what you think.

**The Folium of Descartes**

The folium of Descartes is a famous curve named after the French philosopher and mathematician Rene Descartes (pictured top right). As well as significant contributions to philosophy (“I think therefore I am”) he was also the father of modern geometry through the development of the x,y coordinate system of plotting algebraic curves. As such the Cartesian plane (as we call the x,y coordinate system) is named after him.

**Pascal and Descartes**

Descartes was studying what is now known as the folium of Descartes (folium coming from the Latin for leaf) in the first half of the 1600s. Prior to the invention of calculus, the ability to calculate the gradient at a given point was a real challenge. He placed a wager with Pierre de Fermat, a contemporary French mathematician (of Fermat’s Last Theorem fame) that Fermat would be unable to find the gradient of the curve – a challenge that Fermat took up and succeeded with.

**Calculus – implicit differentiation:**

Today, armed with calculus and the method of implicit differentiation, finding the gradient at a point for the folium of Descartes is more straightforward. The original Cartesian equation is:

which can be differentiated implicitly to give:

Therefore if we take (say) a =1 and the coordinate (1.5, 1.5) then we will have a gradient of -1.

**Parametric equations**

It’s sometimes easier to express a curve in a different way to the usual Cartesian equation. Two alternatives are polar coordinates and parametric coordinates. The parametric equations for the folium are given by:

In order to use parametric equations we simply choose a value of t (say t =1) and put this into both equations in order to arrive at a coordinate pair in the x,y plane. If we choose t = 1 and have set a = 1 as well then this gives:

x(1) = 3/2

y(1) = 3/2

therefore the point (1.5, 1.5) is on the curve.

You can read a lot more about famous curves and explore the maths behind them with the excellent “50 famous curves” from Bloomsburg University.

**IB Revision**