The Mathematics of Crime and Terrorism

The ever excellent Numberphile have just released a really interesting video looking at what mathematical models are used to predict terrorist attacks and crime.  Whereas a Poisson distribution assumes that events that happen are completely independent, it is actually the case that one (say) burglary in a neighbourhood means that another burglary is much more likely to happen shortly after.  Therefore we need a new distribution to model this.  The one that Hannah Fry talks about in the video is called the Hawkes process – which gets a little difficult.  Nevertheless this is a nice video for showing the need to adapt models to represent real life data.