The ever excellent Numberphile have just released a really interesting video looking at what mathematical models are used to predict terrorist attacks and crime. Whereas a Poisson distribution assumes that events that happen are completely independent, it is actually the case that one (say) burglary in a neighbourhood means that another burglary is much more likely to happen shortly after. Therefore we need a new distribution to model this. The one that Hannah Fry talks about in the video is called the Hawkes process – which gets a little difficult. Nevertheless this is a nice video for showing the need to adapt models to represent real life data.

All content on this site has been written by Andrew Chambers (MSc. Mathematics, IB Mathematics Examiner).

New website for International teachers

I’ve just launched a brand new maths site for international schools – over 2000 pdf pages of resources to support IB teachers. If you are an IB teacher this could save you 200+ hours of preparation time.