Thanks for the article.

I have a question about this section:

“So we can expect this to erupt in the next 10 years with probability 1 -e-0.14 ≈ 0.0139.”

This may be obvious, but I am having trouble understanding why this gives you the probability it will erupt in the NEXT 10 and not just in a given/random 10- year range. Can you explain?

Thanks

]]>What is the point in trying to predict an event that may or may not happen in 600,000 years?

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